Ken's Blog

Here is another redistricting and census primer.

We seem to go through this every ten years, too. Folks close to government and voting rights get out and want to encourage more participation in the census count, as it results in federal dollars and more congressional representation. Folks who don’t trust government do what they can to suppress the count and somebody else gets money that would have otherwise gone to Arizona.

However, this article shows a great example of how the census runs right up against the housing market in Arizona (and why we need a more diversified economic base).

For the last several years, those of us close to the issue have expected that Arizona would get 2 more congressional seats after the 2010 census. It looks like we will only get one.

According to the article linked above, we are about 60,000 residents shy of getting that second congressional district. According to rough estimates based on housing starts and home purchases, Phoenix has not grown in three years.

So, here is how it lays out: a few bankers get in to the risky game of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps, which grow exponentially; too many people buy houses that are too big for them; too many mortgage brokers sell loans to people without the standing to incur that debt; the entire thing falls apart; Arizona gets hit the worst because for years the home builders have too much power in our state government and they keep our economy tied to only one major industry; home sales plummet; people stop coming and, as a result we don’t get another member of congress.

Mind boggling, isn’t it?!